Next stop carbon dioxide removal? German climate policies and the risky road to negative emission technologies

Both the global and the German climate targets are ambitious given recent emission reduction rates. In addition to emission reduction measures, carbon dioxide removal has been increasingly discussed recently and initial measures have been developed to potentially scale-up carbon removals in order to meet net zero targets. In this article, we undertake a political economy-based analysis of the historical development and structural conditions of German climate policy measures and their enabling role for the emergence and strengthening of carbon dioxide removal policy options. We refer to regulation theory and the Modell Deutschland approach and argue that within this model the concept of ecological modernization has been established as the dominant approach to regulate society-nature relations. In light of the ambitious climate policy goals, such as net zero by 2045, ecological modernization reaches its current limits and must be recalibrated. Against this background, we conclude by discussing the risk of mitigation deterrence associated with carbon dioxide removals and considering alternative pathways, such as degrowth, to social ecological transformation.